Assumptions:
There are countless assumptions
that have to be made when
calculating projected impacts. Here
are the key assumptions that have
been made for these projections:


  • The amount of drilling activity
    will increase to an average of
    about 55 drilling rigs working
    in the county.

  • 875 Long-Term (i.e. 40 years)
    jobs will be created to
    manage gas production in the
    fields after the drilling has
    been completed.


  • About 75% of the gas industry
    employees will bring a
    spouse or significant other
    with them, with an average of
    1 child per employee.

  • About 1.4 Jobs will be created
    indirectly from each gas
    industry job that is created.
    This indirect employment will
    be created throughout
    Southwestern Wyoming, with
    a distribution similar to the
    current population distribution
    in the region.

  • Between 200 and 1000 short
    term (less than 20 years) gas
    industry workers will move to
    Sublette County for the drilling
    phase of field development,
    and 100% of them will leave
    after drilling is completed.
    Please see the High, Medium,
    and Low impact disclaimer at
    right for more on this.
Impact Scenarios:

Given the assumptions, the
biggest unknown at this time is
the amount of short-term
industry workers that will
relocate to Sublette County.
These workers would live in
Sublette County during the
drilling phase of development,
although the majority would not
bee directly employed on the
rigs.

Three estimates are given:

LOW IMPACT: Assumes 200
gas industry employees move to
Sublette County for the drilling
phase of development.

MEDIUM IMPACT: Assumes 500
gas industry employees move to
Sublette County for the drilling
phase of development.

HIGH IMPACT: Assumes 1000
gas industry employees move to
Sublette County for the drilling
phase of development.

NO IMPACT: Assumes a
continuation of the natural 23%
increase in population every 10
years.


Housing availability will likely be
the key factor that determines
which of these impact scenarios
take place. Currently, housing
availability is so tight that the
Low Impact scenario seems
likely. However, if housing were
made available, it is likely the
amount of short-term workers
permanently residing in the
county would match the amount
of housing available.
Population Projections:

Within the next 20 years Sublette County will undergo big population increases due to
oil and gas activity. Below are the projected impacts to population and school
age-children created by Roy Allen, Wyoming BLM State Economist, and Jeffrey Jacquet,
Sublette County Socioeconomic Analyst. The projections are based on discussions
with gas industry management, BLM officials, previous boom-and-bust trends, survey
data from gas industry workforce, and past migration trends.  The projections calculate
permanent residents only, and do not include rotational/temporary workers.

The key assumptions used for these projections are at right, while a description of the
different impact scenarios are below the following graphs.

To Download a PowerPoint Presentation file that contains this information, click here.
North County/South County Projections:

The above graphs detail county-wide population projections. For a more area-specific distribution of population, we simply broke
down the county-wide estimates into either North County or South County. It is felt that a more specific breakdown would quickly
loose accuracy. Currently the population distrbution is about 60% North County and 40% South County. We assumed the
population increases would be distributed in a similar 60/40 split.
Click on Graphs to Enlarge
South County Population Impact
(Assuming 40% of total impact)
North County Population Impact
(Assuming 60% of total impact)
South County School-Age Population Impact
(Assuming 60% of total impact)
North County School-Age Population Impact
(Assuming 60% of total impact)
Unless otherwise noted,
all contents of this
website are property of
the Sublette County
Socioeconomic Analysis
Advisory Committee.
Please Contact Us for
permission to use.
Click on the graphs for a larger picture