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So, How Many Out-Of-Town workers are there in Sublette County?
BY: Jeffrey Jacquet -- Sublette Co. Socioeconomic Analyst.
Note: This article was first published in the Pinedale Round-up and the Sublette Examiner in
the last week of August, 2006.
There have been a lot of BIG numbers thrown out in the last couple
weeks, especially in regards to Sublette County's recent population
growth and visiting workforce. Last week, I received a call from an
economist working in Colorado and the first thing he asked me was,
"Are you guys really expecting 11,000 new workers by the end of the
year?"
Apparently, the figure was given during a news program about Pinedale
that was broadcast nationwide on PBS last week. After hearing that
Laurie Latta was fielding similar inquiries over at the Pinedale Town
Hall, she and I figured a newspaper article with more accurate
workforce numbers might be in order.
So, how many temporary/out-of-town workers are there in Sublette County?
Right now, close to 3000 total workers, although only a little more
than half of these folks are actually here at any given time. In
addition, it is unlikely the workforce will increase dramatically
anytime soon. Instead, the workforce will probably decrease as winter
approaches.
While it is a far cry from 11,000 workers, 1,500 people in a county
the size of 7,000 is still a pretty big number. 1,500 workers means
one out of every six people in the county is an out-of-town worker,
even if they spend almost all their time is spent at work.
The gas field workforce is pretty much determined by the number of
drilling rigs that we have in the county. More rigs means more rig
crews, more well pad construction, more fracing crews, more pipeline
crews, and etc. Likewise, fewer rigs mean less people.
Right now Sublette County has about 54 drilling rigs: about 21 in the
Jonah field, and about 33 in the Pinedale Anticline. This compares to
about 44 rigs this time last year, and the number will go down as
winter approaches, although the winter decrease will probably be less
than it was last year, which was already the smallest winter decrease
so far. Presently, this number of rigs is already at or above the
limit envisioned by the Jonah Infill FEIS. While the rig count on the
Anticline might increase next summer with the release of the upcoming
Anticline SEIS, on the short run there is probably as many workers
here now as we are going to get for a while.
On average, there are about 30 people that work on each rig: about 22
roughnecks and a varying number of rig supervisors, consultants, and
safety personnel that live on the rig location itself.
54 drilling rigs X 30 rig workers = 1,620 people. The vast majority of
these workers are from out-of-town, with only about half of these
people actually here at a given time.
A recent wage study determined that these 1,600 roughnecks in Sublette
County make about $74 million a year in wages, plus overtime. This
would be quite an infusion into the local economy. However, it is
likely that hardly any of this money will be spent in Western Wyoming.
Besides the roughnecks, you have to count the completion crews. 54
rigs should be able to drill 500 wells in a year, and each well
requires a completion crew before gas can be produced. The workforce
numbers vary, but with all the shifts and workers included, each crew
might employ 40 people total and be able to complete 20 wells per
year. Thus 25 crews might be needed to complement our 50-plus drilling
rigs.
25 crews X 40 workers per crew = 1000 people. Again, only about half
of these folks are here at a given time.
At this point we are up to 2,620 total workers. In the summer time,
pipeline construction adds several hundred temporary workers in the
community, depending on the number and sizes of the projects.
In addition, there are (at the very least) dozens and dozens of
welders, truck drivers, and construction workers who are working here
but calling home somewhere else. While roustabout crews are mostly
comprised of resident workers, there are likely some out-of-town
workers there too.
So, somewhere around 3,000 total workers is probably a good ballpark
guess, with nearly half of them currently at home somewhere else.
700% growth in 6 years?
The PBS reporter also mentioned in her story that "Once the
least-populated area in the least-populated state, Sublette County has
mushroomed sevenfold in just six years."
This is a completely preposterous statement. Actually, Sublette County
is still one of the least-populated areas in still the least-populated
state. In reality, Sublette County has grown nearly 18% in just six
years from 5835 in 1999 to 6926 in 2005. If you count those 1,500
out-of-town workers, it becomes a 44% increase. Throw in the workers
who are currently at home somewhere else, and the increase becomes
about 70%. These are still huge increases (especially for Wyoming),
but not quite 700%!
One way to think about it: Any way you count it, there are less
people living in our county (roughly the size of Connecticut) than
there are people passing through New York City's Grand Central Station
every 20 minutes…
BY: Jeffrey Jacquet -- Sublette Co. Socioeconomic Analyst.
Note: This article was first published in the Pinedale Round-up and the Sublette Examiner in
the last week of August, 2006.
There have been a lot of BIG numbers thrown out in the last couple
weeks, especially in regards to Sublette County's recent population
growth and visiting workforce. Last week, I received a call from an
economist working in Colorado and the first thing he asked me was,
"Are you guys really expecting 11,000 new workers by the end of the
year?"
Apparently, the figure was given during a news program about Pinedale
that was broadcast nationwide on PBS last week. After hearing that
Laurie Latta was fielding similar inquiries over at the Pinedale Town
Hall, she and I figured a newspaper article with more accurate
workforce numbers might be in order.
So, how many temporary/out-of-town workers are there in Sublette County?
Right now, close to 3000 total workers, although only a little more
than half of these folks are actually here at any given time. In
addition, it is unlikely the workforce will increase dramatically
anytime soon. Instead, the workforce will probably decrease as winter
approaches.
While it is a far cry from 11,000 workers, 1,500 people in a county
the size of 7,000 is still a pretty big number. 1,500 workers means
one out of every six people in the county is an out-of-town worker,
even if they spend almost all their time is spent at work.
The gas field workforce is pretty much determined by the number of
drilling rigs that we have in the county. More rigs means more rig
crews, more well pad construction, more fracing crews, more pipeline
crews, and etc. Likewise, fewer rigs mean less people.
Right now Sublette County has about 54 drilling rigs: about 21 in the
Jonah field, and about 33 in the Pinedale Anticline. This compares to
about 44 rigs this time last year, and the number will go down as
winter approaches, although the winter decrease will probably be less
than it was last year, which was already the smallest winter decrease
so far. Presently, this number of rigs is already at or above the
limit envisioned by the Jonah Infill FEIS. While the rig count on the
Anticline might increase next summer with the release of the upcoming
Anticline SEIS, on the short run there is probably as many workers
here now as we are going to get for a while.
On average, there are about 30 people that work on each rig: about 22
roughnecks and a varying number of rig supervisors, consultants, and
safety personnel that live on the rig location itself.
54 drilling rigs X 30 rig workers = 1,620 people. The vast majority of
these workers are from out-of-town, with only about half of these
people actually here at a given time.
A recent wage study determined that these 1,600 roughnecks in Sublette
County make about $74 million a year in wages, plus overtime. This
would be quite an infusion into the local economy. However, it is
likely that hardly any of this money will be spent in Western Wyoming.
Besides the roughnecks, you have to count the completion crews. 54
rigs should be able to drill 500 wells in a year, and each well
requires a completion crew before gas can be produced. The workforce
numbers vary, but with all the shifts and workers included, each crew
might employ 40 people total and be able to complete 20 wells per
year. Thus 25 crews might be needed to complement our 50-plus drilling
rigs.
25 crews X 40 workers per crew = 1000 people. Again, only about half
of these folks are here at a given time.
At this point we are up to 2,620 total workers. In the summer time,
pipeline construction adds several hundred temporary workers in the
community, depending on the number and sizes of the projects.
In addition, there are (at the very least) dozens and dozens of
welders, truck drivers, and construction workers who are working here
but calling home somewhere else. While roustabout crews are mostly
comprised of resident workers, there are likely some out-of-town
workers there too.
So, somewhere around 3,000 total workers is probably a good ballpark
guess, with nearly half of them currently at home somewhere else.
700% growth in 6 years?
The PBS reporter also mentioned in her story that "Once the
least-populated area in the least-populated state, Sublette County has
mushroomed sevenfold in just six years."
This is a completely preposterous statement. Actually, Sublette County
is still one of the least-populated areas in still the least-populated
state. In reality, Sublette County has grown nearly 18% in just six
years from 5835 in 1999 to 6926 in 2005. If you count those 1,500
out-of-town workers, it becomes a 44% increase. Throw in the workers
who are currently at home somewhere else, and the increase becomes
about 70%. These are still huge increases (especially for Wyoming),
but not quite 700%!
One way to think about it: Any way you count it, there are less
people living in our county (roughly the size of Connecticut) than
there are people passing through New York City's Grand Central Station
every 20 minutes…
