Crime: Exponential Increases

The number of index crimes reported and arrests made in Sublette County has continued
to increase at  a nearly exponential rate since 2000, according to Uniform Crime Reporting
statistics compiled by the Office of Wyoming Attorney General.   

The biggest increases in arrests continue to be related to Driving Under the Influence,
Drug Possession, Larceny, and "other crimes" thought to be associated with outstanding
warrants.  Violent crimes (such as rape, murder, felony assault, etc) have not increased
however.

The rise in reported index crimes has been found to be highly correlated with the amount
of rig activity in Sublette County, as rig activity is a strong measure of the temporary
workforce residing in the county.  Please view the crime report for a detailed analysis.   
Download the crime dataset  for detailed data on arrests and reported crimes in Sublette
County, Sweetwater County, and the State of Wyoming between 1995 and 2005.

Using data from 1995-2004, predictions on future levels of arrests and reported crimes
were made analyzing correlations between rig activity and crime indicators using a
quadratic regression model.  The model predicted steep increases in crime indicators as
the amount of rig activity in Sublette County continued to expand.

However, results on the number of reported index crimes in 2005 have shown an
increase even greater than was predicted.  (Please see the graphs at right, click for a
bigger picture)
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